Residential · neighborhood
Chapel Hill market report
Neighborhood series. Most months are too thin for a median. 21 closings in the last 12 months. Use Decatur as the pricing context.
Closed sales through 2026-09. Live inventory is a current snapshot, not the closed month. 4 active · 1 under contract · 2 pending. Total residential listings by status: 7.
Data confidence: Low. 21 closings in the last 12 months. Too thin for a monthly read. Use live inventory and the surrounding market.
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How to read a neighborhood
A subdivision with a handful of sales a year cannot support the same report as a ZIP or a school. The numbers below are a trailing year, not a monthly market.
- 21 homes closed here in the last 12 months. That is enough to sketch a price range.
- Ignore a single month’s median. One luxury sale or one starter home moves it by six figures.
- Price off Decatur, then adjust for this subdivision’s size, age, and condition.
- 4 homes are active right now. That live list is more useful than last month’s median. Homes for sale in Chapel Hill, Decatur →
Versus the broader market
Latest closed month only, not the 12-month figure above. The Georgia footprint is the macro context.
2.0 months of supply on last month’s pace (4 active ÷ 2 closings). 2.3 months on the trailing-12 pace (average 2 closings a month). These are different windows.Sellers have leverage on well-priced homes. 0.0% of last month’s closings were below list. Days on market are up 2% from a year ago.
How homes actually closed
Based on 2 closings. One sale moves these percentages by 50 points. Read the direction, not the exact share.
Leading signals
These move before closed prices. Use them to see if the next 30–60 days look tighter or looser than last month’s closings.
Closed sales are taking longer or reducing more often. Seller pressure is rising.
If you own in Chapel Hill
Low confidence. 21 closings in the last 12 months.
- Your subdivision is a competitive set, not a market index. The trailing-year median is $264,747.
- Start with Decatur, then adjust for lot, size, age, and condition.
- 4 homes are competing with yours right now. That live list matters more than last month’s median. Homes for sale in Chapel Hill, Decatur →
- Homes that sold in the last year took about 45 days. If you list, price to the 12-month $/SF ($139), not a single recent sale.
What this means if you are listing in Chapel Hill
- Price to the 12-month median and $/SF ($264,747, $139), not last month and not the market-wide number. Then check it against Decatur.
- 2.0 months of supply on last month’s pace. Homes that sold in the last year took about 45 days. Longer than the 12-month DOM usually means the price is high.
- 33.3% of the last 12 months’ closings were below list. 52.4% had already reduced. Read that as a year, not as last month’s three sales.
- The live list is the competition. Homes for sale in Chapel Hill, Decatur →
What this means if you are making an offer
- Well-priced homes can still move. Your better leverage is on homes that have sat.
- 52.4% of the last year’s closings had already reduced. That is where the negotiation is.
- Do not use the market-wide median. Start with Decatur, then this subdivision’s 12-month $/SF.
- Last month had 2 closings. One sale does not make a market. Confirm on the live list. Homes for sale in Chapel Hill, Decatur →
Live inventory mix
Current listings by price band and property type. Where the competition actually is right now.
Price bands
| Band | Listed | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Under $300k | 7 | 100.0% |
Property types
| Type | Listed | Median ask |
|---|---|---|
| Single Family Residence | 7 | $249,999 |
4 active, 1 under contract, 2 pending. 1 new in the last 30 days.
Median close price
Monthly series
Most recent months first. Neighborhood medians show with 1+ closings. One sale moves the number; use the 12-month figure for context.
| Month | Closed | Median | $/SF | DOM | Sale/list | Below | Reduced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 2 | $294,450 | $125 | 82 | 99.9% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Aug 2026 | 3 | $279,999 | $136 | 42 | 100.0% | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Jul 2026 | 1 | $240,000 | $186 | 11 | 102.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Apr 2026 | 1 | $320,000 | $163 | 5 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mar 2026 | 1 | $170,000 | $142 | 43 | 94.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Jan 2026 | 2 | $218,000 | $138 | 122 | 95.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Dec 2025 | 1 | $339,900 | $128 | 37 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nov 2025 | 2 | $235,000 | $120 | 4 | 101.5% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Oct 2025 | 4 | $283,750 | $144 | 25 | 100.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Sep 2025 | 1 | $284,900 | $120 | 74 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Aug 2025 | 2 | $247,500 | $147 | 56 | 98.7% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Jul 2025 | 1 | $240,000 | $142 | 33 | 104.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| May 2025 | 1 | $240,000 | $127 | 80 | 96.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Apr 2025 | 2 | $241,500 | $155 | 7 | 102.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Feb 2025 | 2 | $327,500 | $129 | 47 | 102.9% | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Jan 2025 | 1 | $336,000 | $184 | 98 | 99.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nov 2024 | 1 | $255,000 | n/a | 13 | 100.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aug 2024 | 2 | $252,250 | $126 | 40 | 93.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Jul 2024 | 3 | $232,000 | $149 | 37 | 100.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Jun 2024 | 2 | $320,000 | $184 | 4 | 101.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| May 2024 | 1 | $285,000 | $181 | 15 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Apr 2024 | 1 | $305,000 | $162 | 2 | 96.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Mar 2024 | 7 | $255,000 | $124 | 34 | 95.7% | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Feb 2024 | 1 | $211,814 | $141 | n/a | 89.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Below = closed under 99% of list. Reduced = original list higher than final list.