FMLS Residential · neighborhood
Lake Arrowhead
Neighborhood series. Most months are too thin for a median. 112 closings in the last 12 months. Use Waleska as the pricing context.
Closed sales through 2026-09. Live inventory is a current snapshot, not the closed month. 95 active · 3 under contract · 9 pending. Total residential listings by status: 107.
Data confidence: High. 112 closings in the last 12 months. Enough closings to read a trend.
How to read a neighborhood
A subdivision with a handful of sales a year cannot support the same report as a ZIP or a school. The numbers below are a trailing year, not a monthly market.
- 112 homes closed here in the last 12 months. That is enough to sketch a price range.
- Ignore a single month’s median. One luxury sale or one starter home moves it by six figures.
- Price off Waleska, then adjust for this subdivision’s size, age, and condition.
- 95 homes are active right now. That live list is more useful than last month’s median. Homes for sale in Lake Arrowhead, Waleska →
Versus the FMLS footprint
Latest closed month only, not the 12-month figure above. The FMLS footprint is the macro context.
9.5 months of supply on last month’s pace (95 active ÷ 10 closings). 10.2 months on the trailing-12 pace (average 9 closings a month). These are different windows.Buyers have more room, especially on homes that have sat past 30 days. 40.0% of last month’s closings were below list. Days on market are down 43% from a year ago.
How homes actually closed
Based on 10 closings. One sale moves these percentages by 10 points. Read the direction, not the exact share.
Leading signals
These move before closed prices. Use them to see if the next 30–60 days look tighter or looser than last month’s closings.
More homes are coming on than are selling. If pendings do not pick up, sellers lose leverage.
If you own in Lake Arrowhead
High confidence. 112 closings in the last 12 months.
- Your subdivision is a competitive set, not a market index. The trailing-year median is $509,127.
- Start with Waleska, then adjust for lot, size, age, and condition.
- 95 homes are competing with yours right now. That live list matters more than last month’s median. Homes for sale in Lake Arrowhead, Waleska →
- Homes that sold in the last year took about 41 days. If you list, price to the 12-month $/SF ($243), not a single recent sale.
What this means if you are listing in Lake Arrowhead
- Price to the 12-month median and $/SF ($509,127, $243), not last month and not the FMLS-wide number. Then check it against Waleska.
- 9.5 months of supply on last month’s pace. Homes that sold in the last year took about 41 days. Longer than the 12-month DOM usually means the price is high.
- 47.3% of the last 12 months’ closings were below list. 27.3% had already reduced. Read that as a year, not as last month’s three sales.
- The live list is the competition. Homes for sale in Lake Arrowhead, Waleska →
What this means if you are making an offer
- Supply is elevated at 9.5 months. You have room, especially on homes past 41 days.
- 27.3% of the last year’s closings had already reduced. That is where the negotiation is.
- Do not use the FMLS-wide median. Start with Waleska, then this subdivision’s 12-month $/SF.
- Last month had 10 closings. One sale does not make a market. Confirm on the live list. Homes for sale in Lake Arrowhead, Waleska →
Live inventory mix
Current listings by price band and property type. Where the competition actually is right now.
Price bands
| Band | Listed | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Under $300k | 5 | 4.7% |
| $300–500k | 48 | 44.9% |
| $500–750k | 37 | 34.6% |
| $750k–1M | 14 | 13.1% |
| $1M+ | 3 | 2.8% |
Property types
| Type | Listed | Median ask |
|---|---|---|
| Single Family Residence | 100 | $499,500 |
| Townhouse | 5 | $558,800 |
| Condominium | 2 | $175,000 |
95 active, 3 under contract, 9 pending. 30 new in the last 30 days.
Median close price
Monthly series
Most recent months first. Medians require at least 5 closings in the month.
| Month | Closed | Median | $/SF | DOM | Sale/list | Below | Reduced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 10 | $562,500 | $282 | 36 | 99.5% | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Aug 2026 | 13 | $597,130 | $300 | 41 | 98.6% | 53.8% | 38.5% |
| Jul 2026 | 9 | $469,900 | $209 | 42 | 98.8% | 55.6% | 33.3% |
| Jun 2026 | 11 | $470,000 | $261 | 52 | 100.0% | 45.5% | 27.3% |
| May 2026 | 9 | $537,900 | $276 | 23 | 100.0% | 33.3% | 22.2% |
| Apr 2026 | 7 | $665,000 | $259 | 53 | 98.7% | 71.4% | 57.1% |
| Mar 2026 | 7 | $390,000 | $214 | 53 | 100.0% | 42.9% | 14.3% |
| Feb 2026 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 2026 | 9 | $403,900 | $202 | 59 | 100.0% | 44.4% | 44.4% |
| Dec 2025 | 15 | $515,550 | $258 | 34 | 98.5% | 53.3% | 13.3% |
| Nov 2025 | 13 | $462,906 | $168 | 43 | 100.0% | 23.1% | 30.8% |
| Oct 2025 | 7 | $515,000 | $225 | 19 | 98.1% | 71.4% | 0.0% |
| Sep 2025 | 7 | $430,000 | $213 | 63 | 98.0% | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Aug 2025 | 15 | $515,000 | $225 | 33 | 98.8% | 53.3% | 53.3% |
| Jul 2025 | 23 | $452,900 | $246 | 35 | 100.0% | 39.1% | 26.1% |
| Jun 2025 | 11 | $445,000 | $252 | 39 | 100.0% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| May 2025 | 10 | $485,000 | $228 | 40 | 100.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Apr 2025 | 13 | $465,000 | $204 | 22 | 98.6% | 53.8% | 7.7% |
| Mar 2025 | 11 | $463,000 | $182 | 74 | 99.4% | 45.5% | 36.4% |
| Feb 2025 | 8 | $534,500 | $214 | 77 | 96.8% | 75.0% | 37.5% |
| Jan 2025 | 10 | $482,500 | $210 | 52 | 99.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Dec 2024 | 15 | $396,900 | $203 | 30 | 100.0% | 40.0% | 26.7% |
| Nov 2024 | 10 | $494,950 | $244 | 50 | 99.7% | 40.0% | 10.0% |
| Oct 2024 | 7 | $500,000 | $216 | 52 | 98.0% | 57.1% | 28.6% |
Below = closed under 99% of list. Reduced = original list higher than final list.