FMLS Residential · school
Chapel Hill
Closed sales series. Latest median $346,700 (+6.6% YoY). Balanced on live supply.
Closed sales through 2026-09. Live inventory is a current snapshot, not the closed month. 107 active · 3 under contract · 15 pending. Total residential listings by status: 125.
Data confidence: High. 220 closings in the last 12 months. Enough closings to read a trend.
Versus the FMLS footprint
Latest closed month only, not the 12-month figure above. The FMLS footprint is the macro context.
Opportunity score
0–100. Higher means more room for a buyer right now. Price change uses the 3-month median, not one month. Each part is scored 0–100, then weighted. Includes live supply and demand. Screening tool, not a forecast.
3-month volume-weighted median $328,800 (+2.2% vs same 3 months last year) on 62 closings. Latest month is $346,700. Confidence: Moderate (62 closings in 3 months).
3-month $/SF is up 1.7% versus the same 3 months last year.
Active homes divided by last month’s closings. Under 4 favors sellers. Above 6 gives buyers more choices and more room.
3-month volume-weighted median versus the same 3 months a year ago. One month cannot swing this. A rising median with falling $/SF is usually mix, not appreciation.
New listings in 30 days versus last month’s closings. Above 1.2 means inventory is building. That usually softens the next 30–90 days.
Pending divided by active plus under contract. Not pending divided by active alone. Low means demand is not absorbing the stock.
Share of recent closings that had already cut the list price. High means sellers are adjusting. That is where negotiation usually appears.
Direction of days on market over the last 6 months, not the current DOM. A low score here means DOM is falling, which favors sellers even if supply is high.
5.9 months of supply on last month’s pace (107 active ÷ 18 closings). 5.8 months on the trailing-12 pace (average 18 closings a month). These are different windows.Balanced. Buyers have choices; well-priced homes still close close to list. 61.1% of last month’s closings were below list. Days on market are up 73% from a year ago.
How homes actually closed
Based on 18 closings. One sale moves these percentages by 6 points. Read the direction, not the exact share.
Leading signals
These move before closed prices. Use them to see if the next 30–60 days look tighter or looser than last month’s closings.
New listings are outpacing sales and closed sales are already taking longer or reducing more. Expect more inventory and more negotiating room over the next 30–90 days.
If you own in Chapel Hill
High confidence. 220 closings in the last 12 months.
- Buyers search this school zone. It is the competitive set for your home, more than the city median.
- Recent closings center around $324,604. About $145 per square foot. Use that as a starting point, then adjust for your street and condition.
- 5.9 months of supply on last month’s pace. Expect about 39 days if you price correctly. Longer than that usually means the price is high.
- 61.1% of recent closings were below list. If you are thinking about selling in the next 90 days, look at what is active now, not just what closed. Homes for sale near Chapel Hill, GA →
What this means if you are listing in Chapel Hill
- Price to the closed median and $/SF here ($346,700, $134), not the FMLS-wide number. This market is below the FMLS footprint by 12.2% on median.
- With 5.9 months of supply, expect about 61 days on market if priced correctly. Longer than that usually means the market is telling you the price is high.
- 61.1% of recent closings were below list and 44.4% of listings had already reduced. Concessions show up more on listings that have already sat.
- Check live inventory for the actual competition before you set the number. Homes for sale near Chapel Hill, GA →
What this means if you are making an offer
- Well-priced homes still close close to list; your better leverage is on homes that have sat.
- Your better leverage is on homes that have been listed 30+ days or have already reduced. About 44.4% of recent closings had a price reduction.
- This micro-market diverges from the FMLS footprint by 12%. Do not use the statewide median as your comp base.
- Closed prices lag 30–90 days. Confirm current supply on the inventory page before you assume the temperature has not shifted.
Live inventory mix
Current listings by price band and property type. Where the competition actually is right now.
Price bands
| Band | Listed | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Under $300k | 26 | 20.8% |
| $300–500k | 62 | 49.6% |
| $500–750k | 30 | 24.0% |
| $750k–1M | 3 | 2.4% |
| $1M+ | 4 | 3.2% |
Property types
| Type | Listed | Median ask |
|---|---|---|
| Single Family Residence | 110 | $421,950 |
| Townhouse | 11 | $265,000 |
| Condominium | 4 | $342,500 |
107 active, 3 under contract, 15 pending. 43 new in the last 30 days.
Median close price
Monthly series
Most recent months first. Medians require at least 5 closings in the month.
| Month | Closed | Median | $/SF | DOM | Sale/list | Below | Reduced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 18 | $346,700 | $134 | 61 | 97.4% | 61.1% | 44.4% |
| Aug 2026 | 17 | $300,000 | $145 | 24 | 98.3% | 52.9% | 23.5% |
| Jul 2026 | 27 | $335,000 | $155 | 34 | 99.5% | 40.7% | 40.7% |
| Jun 2026 | 18 | $340,450 | $160 | 27 | 98.3% | 58.8% | 27.8% |
| May 2026 | 11 | $325,000 | $140 | 30 | 100.0% | 20.0% | 54.5% |
| Apr 2026 | 19 | $269,900 | $139 | 35 | 100.0% | 42.1% | 42.1% |
| Mar 2026 | 22 | $322,500 | $141 | 37 | 99.9% | 47.6% | 27.3% |
| Feb 2026 | 16 | $303,195 | $162 | 69 | 99.2% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Jan 2026 | 12 | $277,500 | $142 | 42 | 96.4% | 72.7% | 16.7% |
| Dec 2025 | 19 | $360,000 | $124 | 34 | 98.5% | 61.1% | 57.9% |
| Nov 2025 | 21 | $305,000 | $152 | 28 | 100.0% | 47.6% | 42.9% |
| Oct 2025 | 20 | $383,750 | $141 | 56 | 100.0% | 30.0% | 65.0% |
| Sep 2025 | 27 | $325,180 | $140 | 35 | 100.0% | 44.4% | 51.9% |
| Aug 2025 | 25 | $320,000 | $155 | 22 | 100.0% | 44.0% | 48.0% |
| Jul 2025 | 27 | $320,000 | $137 | 14 | 98.8% | 51.9% | 22.2% |
| Jun 2025 | 26 | $327,000 | $141 | 51 | 99.4% | 50.0% | 46.2% |
| May 2025 | 26 | $332,400 | $146 | 26 | 100.0% | 26.9% | 34.6% |
| Apr 2025 | 27 | $365,000 | $154 | 20 | 100.0% | 37.0% | 33.3% |
| Mar 2025 | 30 | $333,885 | $161 | 24 | 100.0% | 33.3% | 43.3% |
| Feb 2025 | 21 | $306,900 | $137 | 21 | 100.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Jan 2025 | 15 | $305,000 | $154 | 26 | 98.8% | 53.3% | 33.3% |
| Dec 2024 | 24 | $365,950 | $137 | 35 | 98.6% | 54.2% | 54.2% |
| Nov 2024 | 15 | $315,000 | $161 | 33 | 98.2% | 60.0% | 46.7% |
| Oct 2024 | 34 | $328,500 | $168 | 43 | 98.5% | 58.8% | 47.1% |
Below = closed under 99% of list. Reduced = original list higher than final list.